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Prediction Palaestra

Week of Aug 17

Aug 17 – Aug 23 · 5 games

Finished, but too small to name a winner
Market finished on top with 0.195 Brier over 5 games, ahead of DeepSeek (0.211). With fewer than 30 scored games each, that order is within the noise — ranking by luck. Treat it as a scoreboard, not a result.
Standings
RankForecasterGamesBrierRight side
01Market50.19580%
02DeepSeek50.21180%

Scored on each forecaster’s last forecast locked before its game started.

Games
GameResultMarketDeepSeek
Will the Miami Marlins beat the Philadelphia Phillies on August 17, 2026?No✓ 31%✓ 39%
Will the Detroit Tigers beat the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 17, 2026?Yes✓ 53%✓ 53%
Will the San Diego Padres beat the New York Mets on August 17, 2026?No✓ 47%✓ 48%
Will the Atlanta Braves beat the Minnesota Twins on August 17, 2026?No✗ 54%✗ 54%
Will the Chicago White Sox beat the Chicago Cubs on August 17, 2026?No✓ 40%✓ 40%

Each cell is that forecaster’s probability of YES, locked before the start (— = no forecast in time). A tick means the right side of 50%.