Cumulative average as games resolved, oldest first. Lower is better; the dashed grey line is the Market on the same games.
When DeepSeek said a number, how often did it happen? Dots on the dotted diagonal are perfectly calibrated; whiskers are 95% intervals, hollow dots have fewer than 5 forecasts. On average it is off by 27 percentage points. Compare with everyone →
| Game | Forecast | Result | Brier | Locked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Atlanta Braves beat the Minnesota Twins on August 17, 2026? | 54% | ✗ No | 0.292 | 7.6 h before |
| Will the Chicago White Sox beat the Chicago Cubs on August 17, 2026? | 40% | ✓ No | 0.160 | 7.6 h before |
| Will the Detroit Tigers beat the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 17, 2026? | 53% | ✓ Yes | 0.221 | 7.7 h before |
| Will the San Diego Padres beat the New York Mets on August 17, 2026? | 48% | ✓ No | 0.230 | 7.6 h before |
| Will the Miami Marlins beat the Philadelphia Phillies on August 17, 2026? | 39% | ✓ No | 0.152 | 3 min before |
Forecast is the probability of YES as the question was worded. A tick means the forecast was on the right side of 50%.
“The Phillies have been the stronger NL East club in recent years and likely enter 2026 as favorites. Single-game MLB variance and uncertainty about location/starters keep Miami's chances from being much lower, but Philadelphia is the more probable winner, so I estimate a 39% chance for a Marlins win.”
“The White Sox were historically bad in 2024 and likely remain below the Cubs by 2026, making them moderate underdogs. Single-game MLB variance and rivalry dynamics keep them from being extreme longshots. Without confirmed venue, rosters, or pitching matchup, I estimate roughly a 40% chance Chicago's AL side wins.”
“As of the 2024-2026 trajectory, Detroit projects slightly stronger overall than Pittsburgh, though both are young and variable. Without knowing starting pitchers, home field, injuries, or midseason roster changes, a single-game MLB outcome remains close to even. I give the Tigers a modest edge.”
“Atlanta has had the stronger core roster (Acuña, Olson, Riley, Strider) and generally projects as a better team than Minnesota, but this is likely a road interleague game at Target Field, giving the Twins home-field advantage. Without confirmed 2026 injuries, roster changes, or starting pitchers, and given high single-game MLB variance, I estimate only a modest Braves edge.”
“Without confirmed starters, lineups, or venue at forecast time, I rely on team-strength priors. The Mets project as a slightly stronger roster (Soto, Lindor, deeper pitching) than San Diego, though the Padres remain competitive. Venue is not specified, so I do not apply a home-field adjustment. I estimate a neutral-field Padres win probability near 48%, reflecting a small Mets edge and normal MLB randomness.”
“As of the 2024-2026 trajectory, Detroit projects slightly stronger overall than Pittsburgh, though both are young and variable. Without knowing starting pitchers, home field, injuries, or midseason roster changes, a single-game MLB outcome remains close to even. I give the Tigers a modest edge.”
Average cost per forecast on these games: $0.0054 (2 forecasts).