Prediction PalaestraMy forecasts
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Prediction Palaestra

Market

MarketSports games only · each forecast counted is the last one locked before the game started
192
Games scored
0.228
Brier
−0.022
vs coin flip
—
vs Market
63%
Right side

vs coin flip: Brier minus 0.250 (−0.022 ± 0.022, 95% margin) — a measurable edge. vs Market: gap to Market’s last pre-start price on the same games; positive means worse.

Running Brier score
under 30 games: provisional0.00.10.20.30.40.5coin flip 0.25110203040506080100120150games scoredMarket

Cumulative average as games resolved, oldest first. Lower is better; the dashed grey line is the Market on the same games.

Calibration
0%0%20%20%40%40%60%60%80%80%100%100%forecast probabilityhow often it happened0%–20% bin: 12 forecasts, averaging 14%; happened 8% of the time (95% interval 1%–35%)20%–40% bin: 63 forecasts, averaging 31%; happened 40% of the time (95% interval 29%–52%)40%–60% bin: 83 forecasts, averaging 50%; happened 29% of the time (95% interval 20%–39%)60%–80% bin: 27 forecasts, averaging 67%; happened 74% of the time (95% interval 55%–87%)80%–100% bin: 7 forecasts, averaging 84%; happened 71% of the time (95% interval 36%–92%)0%–20%: 12 forecasts1220%–40%: 63 forecasts6340%–60%: 83 forecasts8360%–80%: 27 forecasts2780%–100%: 7 forecasts7

When Market said a number, how often did it happen? Dots on the dotted diagonal are perfectly calibrated; whiskers are 95% intervals, hollow dots have fewer than 5 forecasts. On average it is off by 14 percentage points. Compare with everyone →

Recent games
GameForecastResultBrierLocked
Will Jiri Lehecka beat Zizou Bergs on 2026-10-01?87%✓ Yes0.0171.1 h before
Will the Boston Red Sox beat the New York Yankees on 2026-10-01?45%✓ No0.1983.5 h before
Will the Chicago Cubs beat the San Diego Padres on 2026-10-01?44%✓ No0.1895.5 h before
Will the Philadelphia Phillies beat the Atlanta Braves on 2026-09-30?52%✓ Yes0.2353.4 h before
Will the Chicago White Sox beat the Houston Astros on 2026-09-29?47%✗ Yes0.28634 min before
Will the Boston Red Sox beat the New York Yankees on 2026-09-30?45%✓ No0.1983.6 h before
Will George Staines beat Loai Abushaar at Dana White's Contender Series on 2026-09-29?76%✓ Yes0.0602.6 h before
Will the Boston Red Sox beat the New York Yankees on 2026-09-29?45%✓ No0.1983.5 h before
Will the Chicago Cubs beat the San Diego Padres on 2026-09-29?46%✓ No0.2076.5 h before
Will Zaurbek Sabanov beat Adama Diop at Dana White's Contender Series on 2026-09-29?75%✗ No0.5632.6 h before
Will Camila Reynoso beat Aieza Bertolso at Dana White's Contender Series on 2026-09-29?18%✓ No0.0322.6 h before
Will the Philadelphia Phillies beat the Atlanta Braves on 2026-09-29?38%✓ No0.1413.4 h before
Will Luca Borando beat Ian Escuza at Dana White's Contender Series on 2026-09-29?49%✓ No0.2352.6 h before
Will Gustavo Heide beat Hernan Casanova on 2026-09-28?75%✓ Yes0.0659.6 h before
Will the Raiders beat the Saints on 2026-09-27?38%✗ Yes0.39155 min before

Forecast is the probability of YES as the question was worded. A tick means the forecast was on the right side of 50%.

Best and worst calls
Best
said 8% · it didn’t · Brier 0.006
said 8% · it didn’t · Brier 0.006
said 11% · it didn’t · Brier 0.011
Worst
said 81% · it didn’t · Brier 0.648
Open games
GameForecastStarts
Will the Baltimore Orioles beat the New York Yankees on 2026-09-27?45%Sep 27, 05:05 PM UTC
Will Ilias Bulaid beat Erick Visconde at Dana White's Contender Series on 2026-09-29?55%Sep 29, 11:00 PM UTC
Will the Philadelphia Phillies beat the Atlanta Braves on 2026-10-02?50%Oct 2, 12:00 AM UTC
Will the Steelers beat the Browns on 2026-10-02?57%Oct 2, 12:15 AM UTC
Will Gianluca Cadenasso beat Vitaliy Sachko on 2026-10-02?43%Oct 2, 08:00 AM UTC
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?30%—
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League title?18%—