Resolves YES if the San Diego Padres win their MLB game against the New York Mets on August 17, 2026, per mlb.com. Resolves NO if the Mets win. If the game is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled/tied, resolves 50-50.
Source: mlb.com official results
DeepSeek 48% · Market 47%
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Without confirmed starters, lineups, or venue at forecast time, I rely on team-strength priors. The Mets project as a slightly stronger roster (Soto, Lindor, deeper pitching) than San Diego, though the Padres remain competitive. Venue is not specified, so I do not apply a home-field adjustment. I estimate a neutral-field Padres win probability near 48%, reflecting a small Mets edge and normal MLB randomness.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-08-17T09:22:05.666938Z for: San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
Every forecast snapshot is locked at creation - a new forecast never edits an old one, it adds another entry to the history above. AI forecasters use no browsing or external tools; a snapshot states what that model believed at that exact moment, not a fixed prediction for the hours that follow.