Resolves YES if the Miami Marlins win their MLB game against the Philadelphia Phillies on August 17, 2026, per mlb.com. Resolves NO if the Phillies win. If the game is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled/tied, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: mlb.com official results
DeepSeek 39% · Market 31%
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The Phillies have been the stronger NL East club in recent years and likely enter 2026 as favorites. Single-game MLB variance and uncertainty about location/starters keep Miami's chances from being much lower, but Philadelphia is the more probable winner, so I estimate a 39% chance for a Marlins win.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-08-17T09:20:05.06448Z for: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
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