Prediction Palaestra

UFC card

Sep 22 · 5 fights

Finished, but too small to name a winner

Market finished on top with 0.127 Brier over 5 games, ahead of GLM (0.165). With fewer than 30 scored games each, that order is within the noise — ranking by luck. Treat it as a scoreboard, not a result.

Standings

Rank	Forecaster	Games	Brier	Right side
01	Market	5	0.127	80%
02	GLM	5	0.165	80%

Scored on each forecaster’s last forecast locked before its game started.

Games

Game	Result	Market	GLM
Will Damian Piwowarczyk beat Emilio Quissua at Dana White's Contender Series on 2026-09-22?	Yes	✓ 56%	✓ 52%
Will Norbert Növényi Jr. beat Theo Haig at Dana White's Contender Series on 2026-09-22?	Yes	✓ 82%	✓ 75%
Will Paris Moran beat Marcos Degli at Dana White's Contender Series on 2026-09-22?	No	✓ 23%	✓ 34%
Will Jaden Ortega beat Alvi Dasuyev at Dana White's Contender Series on 2026-09-22?	No	✓ 32%	✓ 38%
Will Callum Connor beat Piero Guaylupo at Dana White's Contender Series on 2026-09-22?	No	✗ 51%	✗ 52%

Each cell is that forecaster’s probability of YES, locked before the start (— = no forecast in time). A tick means the right side of 50%.