Resolves YES if Jaden Ortega defeats Alvi Dasuyev in their scheduled bout at Dana White's Contender Series (Welterweight, Main Card) on 2026-09-22, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Alvi Dasuyev wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official UFC result
GLM 38% · Market 32%
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Both are undefeated finishers, but Dasuyev's deeper resume (9-0 vs 6-0), more recent activity (June 2026 win), and versatility—a R1 submission plus a R3 TKO showing he wins late and in multiple ways—give him the edge over Ortega, whose six wins rest heavily on early KO power with only one decision. Contender Series matchups between elite regional prospects are typically close, and Ortega's power keeps this near a coin flip, but the experience and toolset advantage tilts it toward Dasuyev. My independent read lands Ortega slightly below 40%, roughly consistent with the market but derived from the form and experience gap.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-22T19:41:43.710293Z for: Dana White's Contender Series: Jaden Ortega vs. Alvi Dasuyev (Welterweight, Main Card)
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