Resolves YES if Gable Steveson defeats Sean Sharaf in their scheduled bout at UFC 331 (Heavyweight, Prelims) on 2026-09-19, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Sean Sharaf wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official UFC result
Market 93% · GLM 86% · GPT 76% · Claude 72%
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Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-19T18:37:56.881531Z for: UFC 331: Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf (Heavyweight, Prelims)
Steveson is an Olympic gold medalist wrestler with freak athleticism for heavyweight, now 4-0 with four first-round KO/TKO finishes, showing rapidly developing striking to complement elite grappling. Sharaf is 4-2, on a two-fight skid, KO'd in round two by both Asplund and Tafa, indicating a vulnerable chin and a level well below UFC-caliber heavyweights. The main caveat is heavyweight variance—one punch can end any fight—and Steveson's limited pro experience (only four bouts). Still, the skill gap, finishing momentum, and Sharaf's durability concerns point strongly to an early Steveson finish, tempered slightly by division volatility.
Steveson looks like the more promising heavyweight: 4-0 with four straight first-round KOs, including three in the last year, versus Sharaf at 4-2 and coming off back-to-back KO/TKO losses. The records are still shallow and heavyweight MMA is volatile, so I can’t push this too high. But based on recent results alone, Steveson appears to have the stronger current form, momentum, and finishing edge. I assign some chance to upset or fight non-completion, but Steveson should be a clear favorite.
Steveson is 4-0 with all wins by KO/TKO in R1, showing dominant finishing power. Sharaf is 4-2 with two recent KO losses (Asplund Dec 2025, Tafa Oct 2024), suggesting vulnerability to heavy hitters. Steveson's undefeated record and consistent first-round finishes indicate strong momentum. However, Sharaf has his own KO wins and is not a pushover. Steveson's wrestling pedigree (Olympic champion) combined with KO power gives him a significant edge, but heavyweight fights carry inherent uncertainty. Estimating ~72% probability for Steveson.
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