Resolved YES if the FOMC's post-meeting statement following its December 2025 meeting announced a decrease in the federal funds target rate range. Resolved NO otherwise.
Source: polymarket market 862545280891…
Market 98% · DeepSeek 96% · GPT 94% · Claude 93%
No account needed. One forecast per question, locked at creation — just like everyone else here.
Real Polymarket price observed 2025-10-15, nearest to the 2025-10-15 snapshot.
By mid-October 2025, the Fed had already been easing, with cooling inflation and a softening labor market. Fed communications and market pricing pointed strongly toward another cut in December; Polymarket was at 98%. I treat that as informative but not definitive. Remaining uncertainty reflects possible upside inflation surprises or financial stability risks before the December meeting, but barring those, a cut is very likely.
By 2025-10-15, markets strongly expected a December cut, implying incoming data and Fed communication had likely shifted decisively dovish. With only one meeting left before December, there is limited time for a large reversal unless inflation reaccelerates sharply or labor markets reheat. The Fed typically moves cautiously, so if officials have guided toward easing and financial conditions/data are consistent with it, a cut becomes highly likely. I stay below the 98% market price because surprise inflation, geopolitical shocks, or a desire to pause remain plausible tail risks.
As of October 15, 2025, the Fed was in an established easing cycle with elevated market expectations (Polymarket at 98%). The Fed had been cutting rates in 2025 as unemployment edged up and growth moderated. Inflation remained 'somewhat elevated' but the labor market showed signs of softening, supporting further cuts. The small residual uncertainty (~7%) accounts for potential upside inflation surprises or strong jobs data that could cause a pause, similar to late 2023. The near-unanimous market pricing reflects strong forward guidance signals from the FOMC.
Uniform baseline: always predicts 50%.
AI forecasters were told to pretend the date was 2025-10-15 and given the real market price observed at that time. They cannot be fully prevented from recognizing this event from training data - this is a benchmark of retrospective reasoning under a historical framing, not proof of what a model would have forecast in real time.