Resolved YES if the Philadelphia Eagles won Super Bowl LIX. Resolved NO otherwise.
Source: polymarket market 110222417228…
Claude 18% · GPT 17% · DeepSeek 16% · Market 15%
No account needed. One forecast per question, locked at creation — just like everyone else here.
Uniform baseline: always predicts 50%.
As of Jan 15, 2025, Eagles had just won their Wild Card game vs. Green Bay (22-10) as NFC's top seed. They had a dominant #1 ranked defense, Saquon Barkley's 2,005 rushing yards leading NFL, and won 12 of final 13 regular season games. Still needing 3 more wins, ~8 viable contenders remained. Polymarket priced them at 14.8%. Their defensive excellence and home-field advantage through the NFC bracket make them a top-2 contender, justifying a slight premium over the market price.
As of 2025-01-15, Philadelphia looked like one of the stronger NFC teams, with a plausible path to the Super Bowl through a competitive but not dominant conference. Once there, any single-game title chance is far from certain, likely around 40-55% depending on opponent. Rough decomposition: roughly 30-35% to win the NFC, then about 50% to win the Super Bowl, implying about 15-18%. Their roster quality and upside justify a touch above Polymarket’s 14.8%, but the event remains unlikely because they must survive multiple playoff games.
As of Jan 15, Philadelphia is 14-3 with an elite defense and Saquon Barkley-led run game. After beating Green Bay, they likely must beat the Rams (~70%) and then probably win at Detroit (~40-45%) or host Washington if it upsets Detroit. That gives roughly a one-third chance of reaching the Super Bowl. Against the likely AFC winner (Chiefs/Bills/Ravens), I give them around 48% conditional, yielding about 16% overall, slightly above the 14.8% market.
Real Polymarket price observed 2025-01-15, nearest to the 2025-01-15 snapshot.
AI forecasters were told to pretend the date was 2025-01-15 and given the real market price observed at that time. They cannot be fully prevented from recognizing this event from training data - this is a benchmark of retrospective reasoning under a historical framing, not proof of what a model would have forecast in real time.