Resolves YES if Aryna Sabalenka wins their match against Elena Rybakina on 2026-09-12, per the official tournament result (US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina). Resolves NO if Elena Rybakina wins. If the match is retired, walked over, or not completed before the deadline, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official tournament result
Market 56% · GPT 49% · Claude 46%
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Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-12T18:14:49.111589Z for: US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina
The best direct evidence is the sportsbook consensus, which slightly favors Rybakina: implied Sabalenka win probability about 46.4%. With no reliable additional info on current form, injuries, or surface-specific conditions beyond the event label, I make only a small adjustment toward a near coin flip because these are two elite players and market margins/noise can matter. Accounting for the possibility of non-completion, which resolves effectively against YES here, I keep Sabalenka just under 50%.
The sportsbook consensus gives Sabalenka approximately 46.4% probability of winning. Historically, Sabalenka and Rybakina are closely matched top players. Sabalenka has strong US Open results (multiple titles), but Rybakina is a formidable opponent with a powerful serve. The sportsbook data suggests Rybakina is a slight favorite here. Without additional information about current form or injuries, I'll weight the sportsbook consensus heavily, adjusting slightly downward to ~46% for Sabalenka.
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