Resolves YES if Liverpool FC win their Premier League match against Fulham FC on 2026-09-12, per premierleague.com official results. Resolves NO if the match is a draw or Fulham FC win. If the match is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: premierleague.com official results
GPT 68% · Claude 67% · Market 65%
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The strongest evidence is the sportsbook consensus, implying about a 69.1% home-win chance after market pricing. That aligns with Liverpool being the stronger side and at home. The limited early-season records also point the same way: Liverpool 1-2-0 versus Fulham 0-0-3. I trim slightly below the market-implied figure to allow for bookmaker margin uncertainty and normal football variance, while keeping Liverpool clearly favored. Postponement risk appears low enough not to materially change the estimate.
Liverpool's sportsbook consensus is ~69% for a home win. Liverpool's record is 1-2-0 (modest start) while Fulham is 0-0-3 (winless). Liverpool are historically stronger than Fulham and playing at home. Fulham's winless record suggests vulnerability. The sportsbook probability of ~69% is a strong signal. I'll slightly discount from 69% given Liverpool's mixed early form (1W-2L), settling near 67%.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-12T12:18:47.18893Z for: Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-12?
Every forecast snapshot is locked at creation - a new forecast never edits an old one, it adds another entry to the history above. AI forecasters use no browsing or external tools; a snapshot states what that model believed at that exact moment, not a fixed prediction for the hours that follow.