Resolves YES if Chelsea FC win their Premier League match against Hull City AFC on 2026-09-12, per premierleague.com official results. Resolves NO if the match is a draw or Hull City AFC win. If the match is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: premierleague.com official results
Market 81% · GPT 80% · Claude 79%
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Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-12T12:14:45.216296Z for: Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-12?
Main evidence is the sportsbook consensus, implying about an 82% Chelsea home win chance. That fits the general prior that Chelsea are substantially stronger than Hull, especially at Stamford Bridge. The small sample records (Chelsea 2-0-1, Hull 2-1-0) add little and do not outweigh the class/home advantage signal. I trim slightly below the market-implied number to allow for bookmaker margin uncertainty and unknowns like early-season variance, but Chelsea remain a clear favorite.
Sportsbook consensus gives Chelsea ~82% win probability. Chelsea are playing at home (2-0-1 record) against Hull City (2-1-0 away). Hull City's away record is actually decent at 2-1-0, suggesting they're competitive. Chelsea's home record is solid but not perfect. The sportsbook margin typically inflates favorites slightly, so I'll shade slightly below the 82% consensus. Chelsea are likely a Premier League side while Hull may be newly promoted, making Chelsea strong favorites. Settling at ~79%.
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