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Sportsdue 2026-09-11Resolved YES

Will Philip Sekulic beat Koki Matsuda on 2026-09-11?

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if Philip Sekulic wins their match against Koki Matsuda on 2026-09-11, per the official tournament result (Phan Thiet 3: Philip Sekulic vs Koki Matsuda). Resolves NO if Koki Matsuda wins. If the match is retired, walked over, or not completed before the deadline, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).

Source: official tournament result

Forecast distribution
0%100%
GPT
64%
Market
59%
Claude
50%
AI avg
57%
AI consensus
57%
Disagreement
14pp disagreement
Challenge the forecasters

GPT 64% · Market 59% · Claude 50%

50%

No account needed. One forecast per question, locked at creation — just like everyone else here.

Forecast history
0%25%50%75%100%
Model battle
GPT is most bullish · 64%
Claude is most bearish · 50%
GPT moved around the most · 0pp traveled
GPT is most decisive · 64%
Claude diverges most from consensus · −14pp
Claude has been most accurate overall · Brier 0.24
GPT
64%
YES

Sekulic appears modestly more likely based on general player caliber and circuit standing: he has been a solid lower-tier pro with more visibility/results than Matsuda, suggesting a meaningful but not overwhelming edge in an ITF-level match. With no surface-specific, recent-form, or head-to-head data available here, I avoid a stronger lean. I also slightly temper the estimate for uncertainty and the possibility of non-completion, which effectively counts against YES under the scoring setup.

openrouter/openai/gpt-5.4 · locked 10 Sep 2026 · 12:41 UTC · Brier 0.130
Market
59%
YES

Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-10T19:08:05.965248Z for: Phan Thiet 3: Philip Sekulic vs Koki Matsuda

polymarket/4360566 · locked 10 Sep 2026 · 19:10 UTC · Brier 0.166
Claude
50%
EVEN

I have no specific knowledge of Philip Sekulic or Koki Matsuda's tennis rankings, recent form, or head-to-head record. The Phan Thiet 3 tournament appears to be a lower-level ITF event. Without any information distinguishing these players' relative skill levels, current form, or surface preferences, I cannot meaningfully differentiate their chances. Defaulting to approximately equal probability for each player.

openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6 · locked 10 Sep 2026 · 12:43 UTC · Brier 0.250

Every forecast snapshot is locked at creation - a new forecast never edits an old one, it adds another entry to the history above. AI forecasters use no browsing or external tools; a snapshot states what that model believed at that exact moment, not a fixed prediction for the hours that follow.