Resolves YES if Tommy Paul wins their match against Carlos Alcaraz on 2026-09-06, per the official tournament result (US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz). Resolves NO if Carlos Alcaraz wins. If the match is retired, walked over, or not completed before the deadline, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official tournament result
Market 20% · Claude 17% · GPT 16%
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Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-06T12:07:06.836176Z for: US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz
The sportsbook consensus gives Alcaraz ~84.6% probability of winning (home team appears to be Paul at 84.6%... wait, re-reading: sportsbookConsensusProbabilityHomeWin is 0.8458 for home team). The match is listed as 'Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz' - if Paul is home team, that's ~84.6% for Paul. But Alcaraz is ranked higher. Given ambiguity, the sportsbook likely favors Alcaraz heavily. Alcaraz is a top-2 player; Paul is solid but typically a significant underdog against Alcaraz. I'll estimate Paul wins ~17% of the time.
Sportsbook consensus implies Tommy Paul around a 15.4% chance if he is the underdog/home side opposite Alcaraz. That fits priors: Alcaraz is generally the stronger hard-court player and likely favorite in a US Open matchup. Paul is good enough to be competitive and has upset top players before, so I shade slightly above the raw implied line for uncertainty and normal tennis variance. Retirement/walkover outcomes resolve effectively against YES here, which also limits upside.
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