Resolves YES if Alexander Blockx wins their match against Flavio Cobolli on 2026-09-05, per the official tournament result (US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Flavio Cobolli). Resolves NO if Flavio Cobolli wins. If the match is retired, walked over, or not completed before the deadline, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official tournament result
GPT 51% · Market 51% · Claude 48%
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The best available evidence is the sportsbook consensus, which makes Blockx a very slight favorite at about 52.0%. With no trustworthy additional information on current form, injuries, or surface-specific matchup beyond that, I anchor near the market and make only a tiny downward adjustment for uncertainty and bookmaker margin. This looks close to a coin flip, but Blockx appears marginally more likely than Cobolli to win if the match is completed.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-05T11:56:13.515027Z for: US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Flavio Cobolli
Sportsbook consensus gives Blockx ~52% probability of winning, with only 2 books pricing this. Flavio Cobolli is a higher-ranked ATP player (typically top 30-40) while Alexander Blockx is a younger Belgian player ranked lower. The sportsbook margin slightly favors Blockx as home/listed team. Given the near-even odds from sportsbooks and Cobolli's generally higher ranking, I'll estimate slightly below the sportsbook figure to account for Cobolli's experience advantage, settling near 48%.
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