Resolves YES if Yibing Wu wins their match against Carlos Alcaraz on 2026-09-04, per the official tournament result (US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz). Resolves NO if Carlos Alcaraz wins. If the match is retired, walked over, or not completed before the deadline, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official tournament result
GPT 8% · Market 8% · Claude 6%
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Alcaraz is one of the very best players in the world and typically a heavy favorite over Yibing Wu on hard courts, especially in a Slam setting. Wu has talent and can threaten with first-strike tennis, but his results and durability have generally been much less reliable. Without current-day form/injury updates, a baseline estimate strongly favors Alcaraz. I assign Wu roughly an 8% upset chance, with a small implicit allowance for variance or a compromised Alcaraz performance.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-04T12:44:13.215992Z for: US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz is a top-3 ATP player and multiple Grand Slam champion, while Yibing Wu is a lower-ranked player. At the US Open, Alcaraz would be a heavy favorite. The probability of Wu winning is very low - perhaps around 5-8%. Wu would need Alcaraz to have an off day or be injured. Given the significant skill gap between these players at Grand Slam level, I estimate approximately 6% chance for Wu.
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