Resolves YES if Hull City AFC win their Premier League match against Aston Villa FC on 2026-09-05, per premierleague.com official results. Resolves NO if the match is a draw or Aston Villa FC win. If the match is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: premierleague.com official results
GPT 27% · Claude 24% · Market 23%
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The strongest evidence is the sportsbook consensus, which puts Hull’s home win chance around 25.2%. Hull’s 2-0-0 start at home and Villa’s 0-0-2 away record modestly support a slightly higher home-win probability, but this is only two matches each and very noisy. Aston Villa are likely still the stronger side on underlying team quality, so I would not move far from market pricing. I therefore nudge the estimate slightly upward from the quoted odds to 27% for a Hull win.
Hull City vs Aston Villa in the Premier League. Hull City has a 2-0-0 record (home team), Aston Villa is 0-0-2 (away). Despite Hull's early form, Aston Villa is historically a much stronger Premier League club. The sportsbook consensus gives Hull a ~25% win probability. Hull's strong start is notable but small sample size. Aston Villa's 0-2 record is concerning but they're away. Balancing Hull's home advantage and early form against Villa's typical quality, I'll align closely with the sportsbook estimate at ~24%.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-05T11:54:14.484823Z for: Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-09-05?
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