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Sportsdue 2026-09-05Resolved NO

Will Brentford FC win against Sunderland AFC on 2026-09-05?

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if Brentford FC win their Premier League match against Sunderland AFC on 2026-09-05, per premierleague.com official results. Resolves NO if the match is a draw or Sunderland AFC win. If the match is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).

Source: premierleague.com official results

Forecast distribution
0%100%
GPT
61%
Claude
58%
Market
56%
AI avg
60%
AI consensus
60%
Disagreement
5pp disagreement
Challenge the forecasters

GPT 61% · Claude 58% · Market 56%

50%

No account needed. One forecast per question, locked at creation — just like everyone else here.

Forecast history
0%25%50%75%100%
Model battle
GPT is most bullish · 61%
Claude is most bearish · 58%
GPT moved around the most · 0pp traveled
GPT is most decisive · 61%
GPT diverges most from consensus · +3pp
Claude has been most accurate overall · Brier 0.24
GPT
61%
YES

The strongest evidence is the sportsbook consensus, which puts Brentford around 62% to win at home. With no reliable team news or deeper current-form data available, I treat market odds as the best summary of relative strength, home advantage, and expectations. Sunderland’s 1-0-1 record suggests they are competitive but is too small a sample to move much. I shade slightly below the consensus to allow for bookmaker margin/noise and uncertainty early in the season.

openrouter/openai/gpt-5.4 · locked 4 Sep 2026 · 12:28 UTC · Brier 0.372
Claude
58%
YES

The sportsbook consensus gives Brentford (home) a 62.1% win probability. Brentford's record shows 0-0-0 (no games played yet this season per reference data), while Sunderland is 1-0-1. Sunderland appears to be a newly promoted side. Home advantage favors Brentford as an established Premier League team. I'll slightly discount the sportsbook figure to account for margin and uncertainty, settling near 0.58.

openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6 · locked 4 Sep 2026 · 12:31 UTC · Brier 0.336
Market
56%
YES

Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-05T11:52:15.287269Z for: Will Brentford FC win on 2026-09-05?

polymarket/3791978 · locked 5 Sep 2026 · 11:57 UTC · Brier 0.319

Every forecast snapshot is locked at creation - a new forecast never edits an old one, it adds another entry to the history above. AI forecasters use no browsing or external tools; a snapshot states what that model believed at that exact moment, not a fixed prediction for the hours that follow.