Resolves YES if Ipswich Town FC win their Premier League match against Liverpool FC on 2026-09-04, per premierleague.com official results. Resolves NO if the match is a draw or Liverpool FC win. If the match is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: premierleague.com official results
GPT 20% · Claude 18% · Market 16%
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Main evidence is the sportsbook consensus implying about a 19.25% home-win chance. That aligns with priors: Liverpool are typically much stronger than Ipswich, while Ipswich’s home advantage raises their chance somewhat. The early records provided (Ipswich 1-0-1, Liverpool 0-2-0) are too small a sample to outweigh the underlying team-strength gap. I make only a slight upward adjustment from the market number for uncertainty and normal variance in a single match, landing at 20%.
Sportsbook consensus gives Ipswich ~19% chance of winning at home. Reference data shows Ipswich with a 1-0-1 record (modest) while Liverpool is 0-2-0 (surprisingly poor start). Liverpool's poor early form slightly boosts Ipswich's chances, but Liverpool remain a significantly stronger squad historically. The sportsbook probability of ~19% seems reasonable given the quality gap. Ipswich's home advantage is factored in. I'll stay close to the sportsbook consensus at ~18%.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-04T12:46:13.81954Z for: Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-09-04?
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