Resolves YES if Daria Kasatkina wins their match against Paula Badosa on 2026-09-02, per the official tournament result (US Open WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa). Resolves NO if Paula Badosa wins. If the match is retired, walked over, or not completed before the deadline, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official tournament result
GPT 55% · Claude 54% · Market 8%
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The strongest evidence is the sportsbook consensus, which makes Kasatkina about a 56% favorite. That seems plausible: on hard courts, Kasatkina’s consistency and return game often give her a narrow edge, while Badosa’s upside is high but can be less reliable. With no trusted current injury or form information available beyond the odds, I anchor near the market and trim slightly for uncertainty and match volatility in women’s tennis. I also leave a small implicit allowance for retirement/non-completion risk, which pushes the YES probability down a bit.
Sportsbook consensus gives Kasatkina ~56% probability of winning. Both players are competitive WTA players with similar rankings historically. Kasatkina has been a consistent top-20 player with strong hard court skills; Badosa has had injury issues but is capable on hard courts. The sportsbook data slightly favors Kasatkina. I'll adjust slightly downward from the sportsbook figure to account for the margin embedded in odds, settling near 54%.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-02T12:49:33.782549Z for: US Open WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa
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