Resolves YES if Baltimore Orioles win their MLB game against Colorado Rockies on 2026-09-02, per mlb.com official results. Resolves NO if Colorado Rockies win. If the game is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled/tied, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: mlb.com official results
Market 61% · Claude 56% · GPT 45%
No account needed. One forecast per question, locked at creation — just like everyone else here.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-02T12:49:33.782549Z for: Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies
The Orioles (69-70, away) are significantly better than the Rockies (53-86, home). Sportsbook consensus gives the Rockies a 43.7% win probability, implying Orioles at ~56.3%. The Orioles have a much better record. Kyle Bradish (Orioles) vs Gabriel Hughes (Rockies). The Rockies' poor record supports the Orioles as favorites. Adjusting slightly from the sportsbook implied probability, I estimate ~56% for Baltimore winning.
Baltimore is the better team by record (69-70 vs Colorado 53-86) and appears to have the stronger starter in Kyle Bradish versus Gabriel Hughes, which points toward the Orioles despite being on the road. However, Colorado is at home, and the sportsbook consensus still gives the Rockies about a 43.7% home win chance, implying Baltimore around 56.3% before vig. I trim that down a bit for uncertainty around starting pitcher quality/availability and normal baseball variance, landing at 45% for a Baltimore win.
Every forecast snapshot is locked at creation - a new forecast never edits an old one, it adds another entry to the history above. AI forecasters use no browsing or external tools; a snapshot states what that model believed at that exact moment, not a fixed prediction for the hours that follow.