Resolves YES if Seattle Mariners win their MLB game against Boston Red Sox on 2026-09-01, per mlb.com official results. Resolves NO if Boston Red Sox win. If the game is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled/tied, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: mlb.com official results
Market 47% · Claude 46% · GPT 43%
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Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-01T13:18:33.793599Z for: Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
The sportsbook consensus gives Seattle (home) a 54.3% win probability. However, Seattle is home with a better record (75-63 vs 64-74), which favors them. But Bryan Woo pitching for Seattle (away) vs Sonny Gray for Boston (home) - wait, checking: homeTeamRecord 75-63 with Sonny Gray as home pitcher suggests Boston is home. Seattle (away, 64-74) with Bryan Woo. Boston has better record and home advantage. Sportsbook gives home (Boston) 54.3%. I'll align closely with the sportsbook: Seattle wins ~45.7%, adjusting slightly to 0.46.
Seattle is the away team and has the clearly worse record (64-74 vs 75-63), which points against them. The sportsbook consensus implies about a 54.3% home win, i.e. roughly 45.7% for Seattle before adjusting for vig. Pitching narrows it somewhat: Bryan Woo is a solid starter and may compare favorably to Sonny Gray at this stage, but not enough to erase Boston’s home-field and team-strength edge. I place Seattle a bit below the no-vig market-implied chance, at about 43%.
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