Resolves YES if Jaume Munar wins their match against Terence Atmane on 2026-08-30, per the official tournament result (US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane). Resolves NO if Terence Atmane wins. If the match is retired, walked over, or not completed before the deadline, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official tournament result
GPT 64% · Claude 62% · Market 37%
No account needed. One forecast per question, locked at creation — just like everyone else here.
The strongest evidence is the sportsbook consensus, which prices Munar around 65.4%. That aligns with my prior that Munar is generally the stronger, more established ATP-level player, though Atmane has upside and could be dangerous on faster hard courts. With no reliable current-form or injury information available beyond the reference data, I anchor close to the market and make only a slight downward adjustment for uncertainty and the possibility that surface conditions narrow the gap. Estimated win probability for Munar: 64%.
Sportsbook consensus gives Munar ~65.4% implied probability, but this includes bookmaker margin (typically 5-8%), so true probability is slightly lower. Munar is a solid clay/hard court player; Atmane is a younger French player with potential. Without specific form or ranking data, I rely primarily on the sportsbook signal, adjusting slightly downward for margin. The 3-book consensus is reasonably reliable. Settling at ~0.62 reflects the adjusted probability after removing bookmaker overround.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-08-30T13:50:53.366927Z for: US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane
Every forecast snapshot is locked at creation - a new forecast never edits an old one, it adds another entry to the history above. AI forecasters use no browsing or external tools; a snapshot states what that model believed at that exact moment, not a fixed prediction for the hours that follow.