Resolves YES if Colorado Rockies win their MLB game against Washington Nationals on 2026-08-26, per mlb.com official results. Resolves NO if Washington Nationals win. If the game is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled/tied, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: mlb.com official results
Market 48% · GPT 44% · Claude 38%
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Polymarket YES price as of 2026-08-26T09:02:49.923418Z for: Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals
Without live data, I base this on team strength priors and home-field effects. The Rockies have generally been weaker than the Nationals in recent seasons, but Colorado gains meaningful value if this game is at Coors Field; if in Washington, their chances drop. With unknown pitchers/lineups and no current standings, a blended estimate slightly below coin flip seems appropriate. I also leave a tiny discount for postponement/cancellation uncertainty, which effectively lowers the YES probability because unresolved/50-50 outcomes are unfavorable versus a clear Rockies win.
Both the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals have been among MLB's weaker teams in recent years. The Rockies have generally had worse records than the Nationals recently. In any given game between two below-average teams, the slightly better team wins roughly 55% of the time. The Nationals have been modestly better than the Rockies, giving Colorado roughly a 38-42% win probability. Home field advantage matters but I don't know the venue. Defaulting to slight underdog status for Colorado gives approximately 38% probability.
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