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Sportsdue 2026-09-26Resolved NO

Will Sedriques Dumas beat Luis Hernandez at UFC Fight Night on 2026-09-26?

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if Sedriques Dumas defeats Luis Hernandez in their scheduled bout at UFC Fight Night (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) on 2026-09-26, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Luis Hernandez wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).

Source: official UFC result

Forecast distribution
0%100%
Market
31%
Challenge the forecasters

Market 31%

50%

No account needed. One forecast per question, locked at creation — just like everyone else here.

Matchup details
Weight class
Light Heavyweight
Scheduled
3 rounds
Venue
Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sportsbook consensus
34% Sedriques Dumas (3 books)
DraftKings line
Sedriques Dumas +195 · Luis Hernandez -238
Rounds over/under
1.5
Sedriques Dumas
10-5-0 · line +195
Last 5 fights
  • Lvs Jackson McVeySubmission (D'Arce Choke) · round 1Apr 2026
  • Lvs Donte JohnsonSubmission (Guillotine Choke) · round 2Nov 2025
  • D/NCvs Zach ReeseNo Contest · round 1Sep 2025
  • Lvs Michal OleksiejczukKO/TKO (Punches) · round 1Apr 2025
  • Wvs Denis TiuliulinDecision - Unanimous · round 3Aug 2024
Luis Hernandez
8-0-0 · line -238
Last 5 fights
  • Wvs Hugo GuillonSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · round 2Sep 2026
  • Wvs Paulo MachadoKO/TKO · round 3Oct 2025
  • Wvs Miles HunsingerSubmission (Guillotine) · round 2Jun 2025
  • Wvs Joaquin CamposSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · round 1Apr 2025
  • Wvs Nick LancasterSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · round 1May 2024
Previous meetings
First meeting between these two.
Forecast history
0%25%50%75%100%
Market
31%
NO

Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-26T18:52:51.962619Z for: UFC Fight Night: Sedriques Dumas vs. Luis Hernandez (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

polymarket/4963024 · locked 26 Sep 2026 · 18:58 UTC · Brier 0.093

Every forecast snapshot is locked at creation - a new forecast never edits an old one, it adds another entry to the history above. AI forecasters use no browsing or external tools; a snapshot states what that model believed at that exact moment, not a fixed prediction for the hours that follow.