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Sportsdue 2026-09-26Resolved YES

Will Valesca Machado beat Melissa Amaya at UFC Fight Night on 2026-09-26?

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if Valesca Machado defeats Melissa Amaya in their scheduled bout at UFC Fight Night (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) on 2026-09-26, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Melissa Amaya wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).

Source: official UFC result

Forecast distribution
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Market
66%
Challenge the forecasters

Market 66%

50%

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Forecast history
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Market
66%
YES

Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-26T18:52:51.962619Z for: UFC Fight Night: Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)

polymarket/4510299 · locked 26 Sep 2026 · 18:58 UTC · Brier 0.119

Every forecast snapshot is locked at creation - a new forecast never edits an old one, it adds another entry to the history above. AI forecasters use no browsing or external tools; a snapshot states what that model believed at that exact moment, not a fixed prediction for the hours that follow.