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Sportsdue 2026-09-26Resolved YES

Will Alatengheili beat John Castaneda at UFC Fight Night on 2026-09-26?

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if Alatengheili defeats John Castaneda in their scheduled bout at UFC Fight Night (Bantamweight, Prelims) on 2026-09-26, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if John Castaneda wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).

Source: official UFC result

Forecast distribution
0%100%
Market
23%
Challenge the forecasters

Market 23%

50%

No account needed. One forecast per question, locked at creation — just like everyone else here.

Matchup details
Weight class
Bantamweight
Scheduled
3 rounds
Venue
Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sportsbook consensus
26% Alatengheili (1 books)
Alatengheili
17-10-2
Last 5 fights
  • Lvs Da'Mon BlackshearDecision - Unanimous · round 3Apr 2025
  • Wvs Kleydson RodriguesDecision - Unanimous · round 3May 2024
  • Lvs Chris GutierrezDecision - Unanimous · round 3Oct 2023
  • Wvs Chad AnheligerDecision - Unanimous · round 3Sep 2022
  • Wvs Kevin CroomKO/TKO (Punches) · round 1Apr 2022
John Castaneda
21-8-1
Last 5 fights
  • D/NCvs Mark VologdinDraw · round 3Apr 2026
  • Lvs Chris GutierrezDecision - Split · round 3Apr 2025
  • Lvs Daniel MarcosDecision - Unanimous · round 3Jun 2024
  • Wvs Kyung Ho KangDecision - Unanimous · round 3Nov 2023
  • Wvs Muin GafurovDecision - Unanimous · round 3Jun 2023
Previous meetings
First meeting between these two.
Forecast history
0%25%50%75%100%
Market
23%
NO

Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-26T18:52:51.962619Z for: UFC Fight Night: Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda (Bantamweight, Prelims)

polymarket/4510375 · locked 26 Sep 2026 · 18:58 UTC · Brier 0.601

Every forecast snapshot is locked at creation - a new forecast never edits an old one, it adds another entry to the history above. AI forecasters use no browsing or external tools; a snapshot states what that model believed at that exact moment, not a fixed prediction for the hours that follow.