← Back to arena
Sportsdue 2026-09-26Resolved YES

Will Elves Brener beat Josiah Harrell at UFC Fight Night on 2026-09-26?

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if Elves Brener defeats Josiah Harrell in their scheduled bout at UFC Fight Night (Lightweight, Main Card) on 2026-09-26, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Josiah Harrell wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).

Source: official UFC result

Forecast distribution
0%100%
Market
48%
Challenge the forecasters

Market 48%

50%

No account needed. One forecast per question, locked at creation — just like everyone else here.

Matchup details
Weight class
Lightweight
Scheduled
3 rounds
Venue
Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sportsbook consensus
49% Elves Brener (3 books)
DraftKings line
Elves Brener +102 · Josiah Harrell -122
Rounds over/under
2.5
Elves Brener
16-6-0 · line +102
Last 5 fights
  • Lvs Esteban RibovicsDecision - Unanimous · round 3Aug 2025
  • Lvs Joel ÁlvarezKO/TKO (Knees) · round 3Aug 2024
  • Lvs Myktybek OrolbaiDecision - Unanimous · round 3May 2024
  • Wvs Kaynan KruschewskyKO/TKO (Punch) · round 1Nov 2023
  • Wvs Guram KutateladzeKO/TKO (Punch) · round 3Jul 2023
Josiah Harrell
11-1-0 · line -122
Last 5 fights
  • Lvs Jacobe SmithKO/TKO (Punches) · round 1Feb 2026
  • Wvs Bekmyrza DosmatovTKO (Corner Stoppage) · round 3Jan 2026
  • Wvs Kegan GennrichDecision - Unanimous · round 3Aug 2025
  • Wvs Melvin GuillardSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · round 1May 2025
  • Wvs Quinton Parks Jr.KO/TKO · round 2Mar 2025
Previous meetings
First meeting between these two.
Forecast history
0%25%50%75%100%
Market
48%
NO

Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-26T18:54:50.614154Z for: UFC Fight Night: Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell (Lightweight, Main Card)

polymarket/4510318 · locked 26 Sep 2026 · 18:58 UTC · Brier 0.276

Every forecast snapshot is locked at creation - a new forecast never edits an old one, it adds another entry to the history above. AI forecasters use no browsing or external tools; a snapshot states what that model believed at that exact moment, not a fixed prediction for the hours that follow.