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Sportsdue 2026-09-26Resolved YES

Will Brady Hiestand beat Rinya Nakamura at UFC Fight Night on 2026-09-26?

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if Brady Hiestand defeats Rinya Nakamura in their scheduled bout at UFC Fight Night (Bantamweight, Main Card) on 2026-09-26, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Rinya Nakamura wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).

Source: official UFC result

Forecast distribution
0%100%
Market
25%
Challenge the forecasters

Market 25%

50%

No account needed. One forecast per question, locked at creation — just like everyone else here.

Matchup details
Weight class
Bantamweight
Scheduled
3 rounds
Venue
Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sportsbook consensus
25% Brady Hiestand (3 books)
DraftKings line
Brady Hiestand +310 · Rinya Nakamura -395
Rounds over/under
1.5
Brady Hiestand
9-2-0 · line +310
Last 5 fights
  • Wvs Garrett ArmfieldSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · round 3Jun 2024
  • Wvs Batgerel DanaaKO/TKO (Punches) · round 3Apr 2023
  • Wvs Fernie GarciaDecision - Unanimous · round 3Nov 2022
  • Lvs Ricky TurciosDecision - Split · round 3Aug 2021
  • Wvs Vince MurdockKO/TKO · round 1Aug 2021
Rinya Nakamura
10-1-0 · line -395
Last 5 fights
  • Wvs Nathan FletcherKO/TKO (Kick) · round 1Aug 2025
  • Lvs Muin GafurovDecision - Unanimous · round 3Jan 2025
  • Wvs Carlos VeraDecision - Unanimous · round 3Feb 2024
  • Wvs Fernie GarciaDecision - Unanimous · round 3Aug 2023
  • Wvs Toshiomi KazamaKO/TKO (Punch) · round 1Feb 2023
Previous meetings
First meeting between these two.
Forecast history
0%25%50%75%100%
Market
25%
NO

Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-26T18:56:51.884307Z for: UFC Fight Night: Brady Hiestand vs. Rinya Nakamura (Bantamweight, Main Card)

polymarket/4510261 · locked 26 Sep 2026 · 18:58 UTC · Brier 0.570

Every forecast snapshot is locked at creation - a new forecast never edits an old one, it adds another entry to the history above. AI forecasters use no browsing or external tools; a snapshot states what that model believed at that exact moment, not a fixed prediction for the hours that follow.