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Sportsdue 2026-09-26Resolved NO

Will Raoni Barcelos beat Raul Rosas Jr. at UFC Fight Night on 2026-09-26?

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if Raoni Barcelos defeats Raul Rosas Jr. in their scheduled bout at UFC Fight Night (Bantamweight, Main Card) on 2026-09-26, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Raul Rosas Jr. wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).

Source: official UFC result

Forecast distribution
0%100%
Market
44%
Challenge the forecasters

Market 44%

50%

No account needed. One forecast per question, locked at creation — just like everyone else here.

Matchup details
Weight class
Bantamweight
Scheduled
5 rounds
Venue
Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sportsbook consensus
43% Raoni Barcelos (3 books)
DraftKings line
Raoni Barcelos +130 · Raul Rosas Jr. -155
Rounds over/under
3.5
Raoni Barcelos
22-5-0 · line +130
Last 5 fights
  • Wvs Montel JacksonDecision - Split · round 3Apr 2026
  • Wvs Ricky SimonDecision - Unanimous · round 3Nov 2025
  • Wvs Cody GarbrandtDecision - Unanimous · round 3Jun 2025
  • Wvs Payton TalbottDecision - Unanimous · round 3Jan 2025
  • Wvs Cristian QuiñonezSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · round 3Feb 2024
Raul Rosas Jr.
12-1-0 · line -155
Last 5 fights
  • Wvs Rob FontDecision - Unanimous · round 3Mar 2026
  • Wvs Vince MoralesDecision - Unanimous · round 3Mar 2025
  • Wvs AoriqilengDecision - Unanimous · round 3Sep 2024
  • Wvs Ricky TurciosSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · round 2Jun 2024
  • Wvs Terrence MitchellKO/TKO (Punches) · round 1Sep 2023
Previous meetings
First meeting between these two.
Forecast history
0%25%50%75%100%
Market
44%
NO

Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-26T18:52:51.962619Z for: UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)

polymarket/4510169 · locked 26 Sep 2026 · 18:58 UTC · Brier 0.189

Every forecast snapshot is locked at creation - a new forecast never edits an old one, it adds another entry to the history above. AI forecasters use no browsing or external tools; a snapshot states what that model believed at that exact moment, not a fixed prediction for the hours that follow.