Resolves YES if San Diego Padres win their MLB game against Los Angeles Dodgers on 2026-09-25, per mlb.com official results. Resolves NO if Los Angeles Dodgers win. If the game is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled/tied, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: mlb.com official results
GLM 40% · Market 39%
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Log5 on the records (.614 vs .557) makes the Dodgers roughly 56% on a neutral field; home advantage lifts them to ~60%. Glasnow over Pivetta adds a further edge, though Glasnow may be capped near five innings in late September. Crucially, the Dodgers' magic number over San Diego is already negative (97+70 > 163), so the NL West is clinched and LA may rest regulars, while San Diego could still be playing for wildcard seeding, giving the Padres upside. These factors roughly offset, landing the Padres near 40% — independently derived via record, venue, and pitching, coincidentally close to the market's 41%.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-24T20:04:39.400903Z for: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Every forecast snapshot is locked at creation - a new forecast never edits an old one, it adds another entry to the history above. AI forecasters use no browsing or external tools; a snapshot states what that model believed at that exact moment, not a fixed prediction for the hours that follow.