Resolves YES if Milwaukee Brewers win their MLB game against Philadelphia Phillies on 2026-09-24, per mlb.com official results. Resolves NO if Philadelphia Phillies win. If the game is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled/tied, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: mlb.com official results
GLM 52% · Market 45%
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Brewers' .627 win percentage vs Phillies' .551 implies ~58% via log5 on a neutral field; Philadelphia's home field cuts roughly 4 points. The pitching matchup (fringe swingman Bryse Wilson vs top prospect Andrew Painter) is roughly neutral to slightly Phillies-favoring given Painter's upside and Wilson's modest track record. Both teams have likely already clinched playoff spots, so rest decisions and lineup uncertainty on both sides add variance, pulling toward 50%. Netting these factors, I see a small Brewers edge from superior overall team quality despite the road venue: about 52%.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-24T20:08:39.531547Z for: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
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