Resolves YES if Tampa Bay Rays win their MLB game against New York Yankees on 2026-09-24, per mlb.com official results. Resolves NO if New York Yankees win. If the game is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled/tied, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: mlb.com official results
GLM 45% · Market 42%
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Rays' superior record (.608 vs .576) implies ~53% via log5 on a neutral field. Yankee Stadium home advantage cuts ~4 points; the Schlittler-Seymour matchup favors New York (elite young power arm vs back-end lefty), cutting ~3 more. Both clubs have likely clinched, so rest/lineup uncertainty is elevated and pulls toward 50%. My independent estimate lands ~46%; the de-vigged market (~42-43%) likely prices lineup/motivation details I can't see, so I shade modestly toward it to 45%.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-24T20:06:38.610297Z for: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
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