Resolves YES if Washington Nationals win their MLB game against Detroit Tigers on 2026-09-22, per mlb.com official results. Resolves NO if Detroit Tigers win. If the game is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled/tied, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: mlb.com official results
GLM 46% · Market 42%
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The teams are essentially even in quality (73-84 vs 74-83, a one-game difference), so I start from a coin flip. Detroit gets standard home-field advantage in MLB, worth roughly 3-4 percentage points, pushing the Nationals below 50%. The pitching matchup (Jackson Kent vs Drew Anderson) features two depth/fringe arms with no clear edge I can identify, so I treat it as neutral. Both clubs are likely eliminated, so motivation and roster experimentation are roughly symmetric. My independent estimate lands around 46%, coinciding with the de-vigged market figure but derived from team parity plus road disadvantage.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-22T19:39:42.178576Z for: Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers
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