Resolves YES if Milwaukee Brewers win their MLB game against Philadelphia Phillies on 2026-09-22, per mlb.com official results. Resolves NO if Philadelphia Phillies win. If the game is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled/tied, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: mlb.com official results
GLM 46% · Market 45%
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Log5 on season records (Brewers .628 vs Phillies .551) gives Milwaukee ~58% on neutral ground, but two factors cut against them: the game is in Philadelphia (~3-4% home edge) and the pitching matchup strongly favors the Phillies — Zack Wheeler is a perennial Cy Young-caliber ace while Dustin May is a mid-rotation, injury-prone arm, worth roughly another 6-9% swing. Late-season motivation is likely similar with both clubs playoff-bound. Layering these adjustments lands Milwaukee around 45-47%, which independently converges near the market's 46%.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-22T19:43:42.928571Z for: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
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