Resolves YES if Minnesota Twins win their MLB game against San Francisco Giants on 2026-09-22, per mlb.com official results. Resolves NO if San Francisco Giants win. If the game is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled/tied, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: mlb.com official results
GLM 53% · Market 53%
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Twins' .468 win pct vs Giants' .410 gives a log5 estimate of ~56% on neutral ground; subtracting ~4% for the Giants' home field yields ~52%. The pitching matchup (Zebby Matthews vs Blade Tidwell) pits two young, back-end starters with limited MLB track records against each other - roughly neutral, perhaps a slight Twins edge given Matthews' better command profile. Both teams are likely eliminated, which adds variance but shouldn't favor either side. The sportsbook's 54.4% implied figure includes vig, so a fair market number is likely ~52%. My independent estimate lands at 53%.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-21T20:38:50.921447Z for: Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants
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