Resolves YES if Tampa Bay Rays win their MLB game against New York Yankees on 2026-09-22, per mlb.com official results. Resolves NO if New York Yankees win. If the game is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled/tied, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: mlb.com official results
GLM 47% · Market 47%
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Rays' superior record (95-60 vs 89-66) implies roughly a 53-54% neutral-site edge via log5, but this game is at Yankee Stadium, worth about 4 points to the Yankees. Max Fried, an ace-caliber lefty, is listed as the Yankees' starter while Tampa Bay's starter is unknown, adding another ~3 points against the Rays. Late-season factors (possible lineup rest, seeding motivation) are unknown and push my estimate toward 50%. Netting these: Rays ~46-48%. I land at 47%, slightly below even, reflecting home field and the pitching matchup outweighing the modest record gap.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-22T13:17:16.022979Z for: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
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