Resolves YES if Casey O'Neill defeats Eduarda Moura in their scheduled bout at UFC 331 (Women's Flyweight, Early Prelims) on 2026-09-19, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Eduarda Moura wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official UFC result
Market 68% · GLM 58% · GPT 57% · Claude 55%
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Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-19T18:35:57.445621Z for: UFC 331: Casey O'Neill vs. Eduarda Moura (Women's Flyweight, Early Prelims)
O'Neill appears slightly ahead: she's on a two-fight win streak including a first-round KO of Fernandes in March 2026, is a natural flyweight with a likely size/strength edge, and has strong wrestling with good cardio. Moura, likely a former strawweight, is durable but decision-reliant and comes off a loss to Wang Cong; her best recent win (Murphy) was over a declining veteran. O'Neill's prior losses to Maia and Lipski temper confidence, keeping this near a coin-flip lean rather than a strong favorite. I estimate ~58% for O'Neill, with a small allowance for cancellation/draw/no-contest scenarios that resolve NO.
O'Neill gets a slight edge on résumé and recent rebound: wins over Luana Santos and a quick 2026 finish suggest she remains a solid UFC-caliber flyweight. Moura has also proven competitive, with decision wins over Murphy and Hardy, but her recent loss to Wang Cong tempers confidence. Records are close (11-2 vs 12-2), and both have mixed recent form, so this looks competitive rather than lopsided. With no head-to-head and limited style specifics, I give O'Neill a modest advantage rather than a strong one.
Casey O'Neill (11-2) has better recent form with a KO win in March 2026, while Moura (12-2) lost her last fight in February 2026. O'Neill's finishing ability contrasts with Moura's decision-heavy style. Both have similar records and no previous meetings. O'Neill's momentum and finishing power give her a modest edge, but Moura's experience and record keep this competitive. Slight lean toward O'Neill.
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