Resolves YES if Ozzy Diaz defeats Ryan Gandra in their scheduled bout at UFC 331 (Middleweight, Early Prelims) on 2026-09-19, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Ryan Gandra wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official UFC result
GLM 32% · GPT 31% · Claude 28% · Market 19%
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Gandra is 10-1 riding a five-fight KO/TKO streak, including a first-round finish of UFC-caliber Zach Reese in July 2026, marking him as a rising prospect. Diaz is 3-2 in his last five, coming off a May 2026 KO loss to Ateba Gautier—his second stoppage defeat in three fights—raising durability concerns against a heavy-handed finisher, plus a quick turnaround off a KO loss. Diaz's edges are UFC experience and tougher opposition faced (Zhang Mingyang, Gautier), and his own power keeps him live. But form, momentum, and finishing rate favor Gandra, so I estimate Diaz at roughly 32%.
Gandra looks like the stronger side on available evidence: 10-1 vs Diaz’s 10-4, and a five-fight streak of finishes including two recent first-round UFC KOs. Diaz has shown power too, but he is 2-2 in his last four and was stopped twice in that span, suggesting vulnerability against an aggressive finisher. At middleweight over 3 rounds, finishing ability matters a lot. Diaz is live because he can also hurt opponents, but based on recent form and records, Gandra should be favored clearly but not overwhelmingly.
Gandra has a superior recent record (10-1 vs 10-4), is on a 5-fight KO/TKO winning streak with dominant finishes, and most recently won in July 2026. Diaz has two recent KO losses (May 2026, Nov 2024), showing vulnerability to power strikers. Gandra's finishing ability and momentum strongly favor him. Diaz has some wins but his recent form and KO susceptibility make him a clear underdog against Gandra's current form.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-19T18:33:58.024975Z for: UFC 331: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Early Prelims)
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