Resolves YES if Edmen Shahbazyan defeats Brunno Ferreira in their scheduled bout at UFC 331 (Middleweight, Early Prelims) on 2026-09-19, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Brunno Ferreira wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official UFC result
Market 64% · GLM 59% · GPT 57% · Claude 52%
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Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-19T18:33:58.024975Z for: UFC 331: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims)
Shahbazyan appears to have rebuilt: 3-1 in his last four with two first-round knockouts (Budka, Muniz), and his lone recent loss was a competitive decision to a higher-caliber opponent in Brendan Allen. Ferreira is dangerous—legit power and submission threats, plus a solid win over Vettori—but enters on a two-fight skid, including a first-round KO loss to Rodrigues, and his brawling, low-defense style gives a crisp, faster striker like Shahbazyan openings. Ferreira's power and grappling keep this competitive, and Shahbazyan's past vulnerability to grapplers (Meerschaert) tempers confidence, but form, youth, and technical striking edge favor Shahbazyan.
Shahbazyan gets a slight edge on recent body of work and style risk. Since early 2025 he has 3 wins in 4 before losing a decision to Brendan Allen, including fast stoppages and a solid decision over Petroski. Ferreira is dangerous and beat Vettori, but he has also dropped his last two, including a first-round KO loss to Rodrigues. Both are volatile middleweights, so uncertainty is high, but Shahbazyan seems a bit more stable recently and likely the cleaner striker. I make him a modest favorite, not a heavy one.
Both fighters come off losses in June 2026. Ferreira has two consecutive losses including a KO stoppage in March 2026, suggesting vulnerability. Shahbazyan had a stronger recent run (3 wins before the Allen loss) and his losses were to higher-ranked opponents. Records are comparable (16-6 vs 15-4). Ferreira's back-to-back losses and KO vulnerability give Shahbazyan a slight edge, but uncertainty remains high given both are coming off defeats.
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