Resolves YES if Marlon Vera defeats Charles Jourdain in their scheduled bout at UFC 331 (Bantamweight, Prelims) on 2026-09-19, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Charles Jourdain wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official UFC result
Claude 38% · GPT 37% · GLM 37% · Market 35%
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Vera is on a 4-fight losing streak (all decisions, last win Aug 2023) while Jourdain has won 3 straight including two submission finishes. Jourdain's recent form is significantly better. However, Vera has more overall experience (23-12-1 vs 18-8-1) and has been competitive in losses. Jourdain's finishing ability and momentum favor him, but Vera's experience provides some counterbalance. Estimating Vera wins roughly 38% of the time.
Jourdain looks to have the stronger recent form: three straight wins, including two submissions and a clear decision over Kyler Phillips, while Vera has lost four straight and all by decision, suggesting durability but declining edge. Vera’s experience and toughness keep him live over 3 rounds, and a move/settling at bantamweight could help, but based on current trajectories Jourdain seems the more likely winner. I leave meaningful uncertainty because records are fairly close and I have no weigh-in/injury info.
Vera is on a four-fight skid (Martinez, Zahabi, Figueiredo, O'Malley) with no win since Aug 2023, showing decline at 33. Jourdain rides a three-fight streak, including a solid decision over Kyler Phillips and two guillotine wins, and his move to bantamweight suits his frame. Jourdain's speed, submission threat, and momentum make him the deserved favorite, though Vera's durability, volume, and experience keep him competitive—Vera has never been finished and took Zahabi to a split decision. Small day-of cancellation risk slightly reduces YES further. I estimate Vera's win chance around 37-38%, settling at 0.37.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-19T18:35:57.445621Z for: UFC 331: Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Prelims)
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