Resolves YES if Alonzo Menifield defeats Iwo Baraniewski in their scheduled bout at UFC 331 (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) on 2026-09-19, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Iwo Baraniewski wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official UFC result
GPT 41% · GLM 40% · Claude 38% · Market 32%
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Menifield is the more proven UFC light heavyweight, with wins over solid opposition and clear power, but his recent losses are both by KO and he’s historically volatile. Baraniewski is less proven at this level yet enters 9-0 with five straight first-round KOs, including UFC names like Tafa, Lane, and Aslan. That suggests dangerous upside and momentum, though against a veteran step-up test. Menifield’s experience keeps this competitive, but the younger unbeaten finisher appears slightly more likely. I also slightly discount Menifield for cancellation/draw/no-contest risk counting effectively against YES.
Baraniewski is an undefeated prospect with five straight first-round KOs, including credible UFC-level wins (Aslan, Lane, Tafa), and youth on his side. Menifield, ~39, has a shaky chin (KO'd by Oezdemir, Murzakanov) but just scored a huge R1 KO of Zhang Mingyang, showing his own elite power persists. Both men finish fast, making this near a coin-flip early exchange, but Baraniewski's durability edge, momentum, and age tilt it his way. Menifield's path is landing first; I give him roughly 40%.
Baraniewski is undefeated (9-0) with 5 consecutive first-round KO/TKO finishes, showing exceptional finishing power. Menifield has been KO'd twice in recent fights (Oezdemir, Murzakanov), suggesting vulnerability to heavy hitters. While Menifield has more UFC experience and a solid record (18-6-1), Baraniewski's momentum and finishing ability are significant factors. The undefeated prospect with dominant recent form has a meaningful edge over the experienced but KO-vulnerable Menifield.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-19T18:35:57.445621Z for: UFC 331: Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)
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