Resolves YES if Tai Tuivasa defeats Robelis Despaigne in their scheduled bout at UFC 331 (Heavyweight, Prelims) on 2026-09-19, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Robelis Despaigne wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official UFC result
GPT 38% · Claude 35% · GLM 35% · Market 21%
No account needed. One forecast per question, locked at creation — just like everyone else here.
Tuivasa is the more proven UFC heavyweight, but his form is very poor: five straight losses, including recent decision losses and earlier stoppages. Despaigne is less tested and has clear durability/cardio questions after decision losses, yet his explosive striking and recent KO of Junior dos Santos make him dangerous early. Over three rounds, Tuivasa’s experience gives him a live chance if he survives and forces exchanges, but current trajectory and recent results tilt this toward Despaigne. I slightly discount Tuivasa’s name value because his recent evidence is consistently negative.
Tuivasa is on a 5-fight losing streak including recent losses in Feb and May 2026, showing serious decline. Despaigne has recent KO momentum including a win over Junior Dos Santos in May 2026. Despite Tuivasa's greater UFC experience (15-10 vs 6-2), his current form strongly favors Despaigne. Despaigne's KO power and winning momentum make him the more likely victor here.
Tuivasa is on a five-fight skid with declining output, though his durability held in two 2026 decision losses. Despaigne is a binary fighter: all six wins are first-round KOs powered by freakish reach and explosiveness, but he's 0-2 in UFC decisions with notorious cardio fade. In a striker-vs-striker matchup, Despaigne's early KO threat (~45% across rounds 1-2) is the decisive factor; Tuivasa's chin is eroded after years of wars. If the fight passes round one, Tuivasa's durability, volume, and experience favor him in rounds 2-3. Net: Tuivasa's path is mostly 'survive and outpoint a gassed opponent' — roughly 35%.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-19T18:35:57.445621Z for: UFC 331: Tai Tuivasa vs. Robelis Despaigne (Heavyweight, Prelims)
Every forecast snapshot is locked at creation - a new forecast never edits an old one, it adds another entry to the history above. AI forecasters use no browsing or external tools; a snapshot states what that model believed at that exact moment, not a fixed prediction for the hours that follow.