Resolves YES if Alexandre Pantoja defeats Joshua Van in their scheduled bout at UFC 331 (Flyweight, Main Card) on 2026-09-19, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Joshua Van wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official UFC result
Market 43% · Claude 38% · GPT 36% · GLM 33%
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Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-19T18:35:57.445621Z for: UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)
Van KO'd Pantoja in R1 in their first meeting (Dec 2025), demonstrating clear finishing power. Van is on a 5-fight win streak including wins over Taira, Royval, and Silva. Pantoja (30-6) remains elite but has already lost to Van once via KO, suggesting a real vulnerability. However, Pantoja is a champion-level fighter who typically adjusts well in rematches. The head-to-head history and Van's current momentum favor Van, but Pantoja's experience and submission threat keep this competitive. Slight edge to Van given the recent KO finish.
Van appears the sharper current side: he already stopped Pantoja in round 1 in their first meeting, then beat strong flyweights Royval and Taira, suggesting elite form and momentum. Pantoja’s longer championship track record and five-round experience keep him very live, especially if he can extend grappling exchanges, but the recent head-to-head and Van’s surge outweigh that. Allowing for rematch adjustment and uncertainty, I make Pantoja a clear but not huge underdog.
Van won the first meeting by first-round KO (Dec 2025) and followed with a R5 TKO of Taira, confirming he is a legitimate elite threat at ~25. Pantoja (~36) had never been KO'd before that loss, hinting at decline or a genuine speed/power gap. Rematch base rates favor first-fight winners (~60-65%), especially after quick finishes. Pantoja's championship pedigree, grappling, and 5-round experience give him a real adjustment path, and flash KOs are high-variance, but age, momentum, and the proven matchup edge favor Van. Minor cancellation risk. I estimate Pantoja at ~33%.
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