Resolves YES if Arman Tsarukyan defeats Mauricio Ruffy in their scheduled bout at UFC 331 (Lightweight, Main Card) on 2026-09-19, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Mauricio Ruffy wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official UFC result
GLM 77% · Market 74% · GPT 61% · Claude 58%
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Tsarukyan is the more complete, elite-level lightweight: dominant wrestling/grappling, proven durability, and wins over Oliveira, Dariush, and Hooker, with 5-round experience favoring his grinding style. Ruffy is a dangerous rising striker with real KO power (Fiziev, Chandler KOs), but his loss to Saint Denis exposed grappling vulnerabilities Tsarukyan can exploit over five rounds. Ruffy's clearest path is an early knockout; Tsarukyan's paths to victory are broader (submission, decision, late TKO). Slight risk from Tsarukyan's back-injury history, but he looked fine beating Hooker in Nov 2025. I independently estimate ~77% for Tsarukyan.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-19T18:35:57.445621Z for: UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)
Tsarukyan has the deeper elite résumé at lightweight and a strong recent run, including wins over Oliveira, Dariush, Hooker, and Ismagulov. Over five rounds, his wrestling/control game and proven top-level experience give him multiple paths. Ruffy’s recent KO wins over Fiziev and Chandler show major upside and dangerous striking, but he also has a recent submission loss to Saint Denis, suggesting Tsarukyan can exploit grappling. Ruffy’s momentum keeps this fairly close, yet Tsarukyan looks like the more complete and proven fighter.
Tsarukyan (23-3) has elite competition wins (Oliveira, Dariush, Hooker) and strong grappling. Ruffy (14-2) is on a hot streak with back-to-back KOs of Chandler and Fiziev, showing elite striking power. Tsarukyan's grappling should neutralize Ruffy's striking advantage, and his experience against top-tier competition gives him an edge. However, Ruffy's recent form and KO power make this competitive. Tsarukyan's well-rounded skillset and higher competition level slightly favor him.
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