Resolves YES if Seahawks win their NFL game against Cardinals on 2026-09-20, per nfl.com official results. Resolves NO if Cardinals win. If the game is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled/tied, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: nfl.com official results
Market 66% · GLM 62% · Claude 60% · GPT 40%
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Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-20T18:38:01.033276Z for: Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Based on recent form through the 2025 season, Seattle has been clearly the stronger roster: an efficient offense and a top-tier defense, while Arizona struggled with QB instability and inconsistency. Divisional road games carry extra variance and home-field gives the Cardinals a modest boost, and both teams enter 1-0 with no injury information available, which widens uncertainty. Weighing team quality against divisional-game noise, I estimate Seattle's win chance at roughly 62%, slightly below the implied market figure given my information gaps.
Both teams are 1-0. Sportsbooks favor Seahawks as road favorites (~63.5% implied). Historically, Seattle has been the stronger franchise compared to Arizona in recent years. Without specific injury/lineup data, I apply some uncertainty, pulling slightly toward 50% from the market signal. Independent reasoning supports Seahawks as the better team, consistent with the sportsbook direction, landing around 60%.
Seattle appears to be the stronger franchise baseline than Arizona entering 2026, but this game is in Arizona, which meaningfully narrows the gap. With both teams 1-0, there is little actionable early-season form signal beyond preseason expectations. Typical NFL home field is worth several points, and divisional games tend to be tighter and more volatile. My independent prior would make Seattle a modest favorite on a neutral field, but not by enough to overcome road disadvantage by much, so I put their win chance at 40%.
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