Resolves YES if San Francisco Giants win their MLB game against Los Angeles Dodgers on 2026-09-20, per mlb.com official results. Resolves NO if Los Angeles Dodgers win. If the game is postponed with no makeup before the deadline, or is canceled/tied, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: mlb.com official results
Claude 68% · GLM 27% · GPT 26% · Market 23%
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The home team (94-60) vastly outperforms the away team (64-90) by ~30 games. The Dodgers' strong record supports a high win probability. However, Logan Webb is a quality Giants starter which provides some resistance. The ~30 game record gap suggests roughly 70%+ win probability for the better team, but I'm pulling slightly toward 50% given pitcher matchup uncertainty and the fact that any single game has inherent variance. Independent estimate: ~68%.
Treating home team as the Dodgers (94-60, elite) vs Giants (64-90, poor), a log5 on records gives the Dodgers ~69% neutral, ~72% with home field. The pitching matchup favors them further: Skubal is a top-2 starter while Webb is good but a clear step down. However, single-game MLB variance is large, a likely-clinched Dodgers squad may shorten outings or rest regulars in late September, and Webb has historically handled LA. I land the Dodgers around 73%, slightly below the de-vigged market, making the Giants roughly a 27% shot.
Giants are the much weaker team by record (64-90 vs 94-60) and are on the road, which is a major disadvantage. That said, Logan Webb is a strong starter and narrows the gap against Tarik Skubal, preventing this from being purely lopsided by team strength alone. Home-field plus the Dodgers’ superior overall quality still make LA a clear favorite. I land a bit below one-in-four for a Giants win, with some uncertainty because I lack lineup and bullpen specifics.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-09-19T18:33:58.024975Z for: San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
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