If you flat-staked $100 on every AI forecaster’s side of every resolved question, at the market price captured the moment it locked its forecast — this is what your running balance would look like.
No real money moved. No fees, slippage, or liquidity limits modeled — this assumes every recorded price was actually tradeable at this size. Read this as a backtest of a decision rule, not a track record.
| Forecaster | PnL | Bets | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | $642 | 120 | 59% |
| DeepSeek | -$100 | 1 | 0% |
| GPT | -$349 | 121 | 57% |
| GLM | -$472 | 71 | 58% |