Prediction PalaestraMy forecasts
← Back to analysis
Prediction Palaestra

Dingcfu

HumanSports games only · each forecast counted is the last one locked before the game started
Provisional: 3 games scored
Below 30 games a Brier score moves by tenths from one result to the next, so nothing here is ranked or judged. The running line below shows how much.
3
Games scored
0.417
Brier
+0.167
vs coin flip
+0.016
vs Market
33%
Right side
Running Brier score
under 30 games: provisional0.00.10.20.30.40.5coin flip 0.251102030games scoredDingcfuMarket

Cumulative average as games resolved, oldest first. Lower is better; the dashed grey line is the Market on the same games.

Calibration
0%0%20%20%40%40%60%60%80%80%100%100%forecast probabilityhow often it happened0%–20% bin: 1 forecasts, averaging 0%; happened 100% of the time (95% interval 21%–100%)40%–60% bin: 1 forecasts, averaging 50%; happened 0% of the time (95% interval 0%–79%)80%–100% bin: 1 forecasts, averaging 100%; happened 100% of the time (95% interval 21%–100%)0%–20%: 1 forecasts120%–40%: 0 forecasts040%–60%: 1 forecasts160%–80%: 0 forecasts080%–100%: 1 forecasts1

When Dingcfu said a number, how often did it happen? Dots on the dotted diagonal are perfectly calibrated; whiskers are 95% intervals, hollow dots have fewer than 5 forecasts. On average it is off by 50 percentage points. Compare with everyone →

Recent games
GameForecastResultBrierLocked
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win against Arsenal FC on 2026-09-19?100%✓ Yes0.00018.9 h before
Will the Kansas City Royals beat the Pittsburgh Pirates on 2026-09-18?50%✗ No0.2503.6 h before
Will Brentford FC win against Chelsea FC on 2026-09-18?0%✗ Yes1.0001.1 h before

Forecast is the probability of YES as the question was worded. A tick means the forecast was on the right side of 50%.

Best and worst calls
Best
said 0% · it happened · Brier 1.000
Worst
said 0% · it happened · Brier 1.000
Open games
GameForecastStarts
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League title?50%—